Document Type: مقاله پژوهشی
MSc graduated, Department of RS and GIS, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
Associate Professor, Department of GIS-RS and Watershed Management, Maybod Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
Today, the rapid growth of the world's urban population, especially in developing countries, has created many problems in various fields. Among these, land-use change is of great importance. Modeling and predicting future land-use changes has become increasingly important for urban and environmental management and other relevant authorities and researchers. The main purpose of this study is to apply cellular automata (CA) Markov models based on spatial information system to simulate and predict land-use change. Landsat satellite imagery was prepared during the three periods of late June 1986, 2001, and 2016. Then land use maps of the study area were obtained by classifying the maps. The model derived from the CA Markov was implemented to predict and process and to analyze land-use changes by 2031. Forecast results showed that from 2016 to 2031, green space, urban residential use increased, and agricultural and open land use declined. This study will generally show the decline in open land and agriculture and the expansion of residential and urban areas in 2031, which was caused by the loss of agricultural land and vegetation. The region's economy, based on agricultural and livestock production will face the current productivity situation in 2031.